My valuations

Relative valuation for: US Semiconductor industry

Demand for semis has been exceptionally strong this year with no signs of abating. Rapid innovation in tech would continue to fuel growth, with 5 yr EPS growth projections for US producers standing at around 20%. I perform a relative valuation to find what stocks could still run.

Graph 1: Current and predicted multiples for the firms, driving factors of the predicted multiple

What strikes me is how the EPS growth coefficient (see regressions under the table) has more than halved when comparing mine (done Dec 2021) and Damodaran's regressions (done Jan 2021). Investors are willing to pay less for growth now than at the beginning of the year, hence why growth stocks have been stumbling.

Undoubtedly growth is still the main factor that drives PE ratios of semiconductor firms. The graph below almost perfectly captures which stocks are over(red)/under(green)-valued. I've forced both the regression and the trendline below through zero to avoid negative PE values.
Graph 2: Current valuation versus future growth estimates (red-over, green-underpriced)

Extra checks on the relatively undervalued firms show that there are some sound businesses there indeed. INTC looks great in terms of financial results and the insiders are buying. MU, SWKS and QCOM also look solid, although the latter two face risks due to overreliance on AAPL.
Graph 3: Additional checks for the selected companies

To summarise, I like INTC, MU, SWKS and QCOM due to their strong upside potential (60%+ based on my relative valuation), which owes to solid growth prospects. These firms are also well-run which shows in their financial statements, reinforcing my positive view.

Nevertheless, SWKS and QCOM are to be approached with caution due to risks associated with their overexposure to AAPL, which is a huge client that aims to build proprietary chips.
2021-12-22 21:00 Relative valuation